Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
