Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
